Alert: Andrew Luck overrated

I'm doubling down against Andrew Luck

By Jefferson Johnson    

I’m not saying that Andrew Luck isn’t good; I have no opinion yet. But there still is no statistical evidence that Andrew Luck is a good passer.

Your eyeballs may say different, your gut might tell you he’s clutch, but the raw numbers say he’s average at best. (And the scouts’ eyeballs might tell you different too, but these are the same guys that gave you Ryan Leaf, Heath Shuler and a litany of others. If you want to trust their say-so then God bless you.)

I know this pisses all of you off to no end, but facts are facts. Let’s take a look at Luck’s numbers from last season. (All amongst QBs with at least 200 passing attempts.)

13th in total passing yards. (Just below Ryan Tannehill, Joe Flacco and Tony Romo. And just above Eli Manning.)

• 16th in passer rating.

• 24th in completion percentage.

• 26th in yards per attempt. (Below Geno Smith and Christian Ponder!)

• 14th and 16th amongst Football Outsiders two key metrics that attempt to grade players based on game situation, down and distance, and strength of completion.

I know what you are thinking: “Fantasy points is the only statistic that matters. And depending on scoring system, Luck had the 7th most fantasy points last year.”

That’s true. But keep in mind:

• In average points per game, the inclusion of Aaron Rodgers and Nick Foles pushes Luck down to 9th best. He’s one point away from being 12th. And one point away from being 5th.

Luck’s decent fantasy numbers come entirely as a result of his running ability. While that is a part of who he is, and that isn’t likely to disappear, just make sure you understand that you’re drafting something more akin to Cam Newton and NOT Peyton Manning.

And understand that while his weapons have improved from last season, his passing metrics say he could take a step back in fantasy points, especially if he dings an ankle.