Trade Andrew Luck Now!

Luck's reign of cupcakes ends this week.

By Jefferson Johnson    

There weren’t many writers in the blog-o-sphere that rated Andrew Luck lower than I did this preseason. At various times, I had him ranked anywhere from the 15th to 20th best QB. Despite my prognostications, so far in 2013 Luck has been the 10th best fantasy QB (depending on your format).

Was I wrong about Andrew Luck?

My primary rationale behind Luck’s ranking was threefold.

1. Last season, Luck played a cupcake schedule and I thought that was likely to change.

2. This season, his new offensive coordinator would likely curtail both his rushing and passing attempts, which generally correlates to lower fantasy numbers. (Especially if you’re playing against tougher competition.)

3. I also laid out the cold hard facts that made it evident that Luck wasn’t as good last year as many people portrayed him to be.

I was wrong (incorrect, mistaken, off-kilter, amiss) about a couple of things, but in general, I still think my prediction will be more right than wrong.

Here’s why:

First, let’s address what I miscalculated. I was wrong that Luck would have diminished rushing stats. So far that hasn’t been true. In fact, Luck’s entire fantasy season is being propped up by the fact that he’s on pace for 500 rushing yards and 8 TDs.

However, I was right that Luck’s new offensive coordinator would greatly reduce his passing attempts. He’s fallen from 5th most attempts in his rookie season, to 21st this season. And while Luck has vastly improved his play from his rookie year, he’s still only 22nd in the league in passing yards.

Most importantly (and if you hear nothing else, hear this), thus far Luck has AGAIN played a cupcake schedule. Three of the four teams he’s faced are in the bottom 10 defenses (in terms of fantasy points allowed to QBs), and he hasn’t faced any teams with the top 10 defenses. This means that Luck has faced one of the easiest schedules of any QB in fantasy, yet he’s only managed to score the 10th most fantasy points. Next week, the Colts face the Seahawks (No. 5 defense), and while their future schedule only includes three other top 10 defenses, Luck only faces one more cupcake (week 6 against San Diego).

In light of Andrew Luck’s increased difficulty in strength of schedule, his vastly diminished passing attempts from last season, and the unlikelihood that his rushing numbers will increase, it’s impossible to believe that Andrew Luck’s fantasy numbers will get better as this season moves along.

Now is the time to sell.